Trump's Voters and Cognitive Dissonance
How MAGA Handles Contradiction
Many years ago as an undergraduate, I took Psychology 101, a broad, general introductory survey of the subject. It was a very interesting class but I am sorry to say that I do not remember too much specifically, other than that Sigmund Freud is considered the “father” of modern psychology, even though many of his ideas have subsequently been discredited or qualified. One other topic I remember, though, is the theory of “Cognitive Dissonance.” This theory has been around since the mid-1950s and at its heart posits that we feel psychic anxiety when we hold two contradictory beliefs or when our actions do not match our beliefs. Let’s say, for example, that you believe Joe’s Bakery has the best apple fritters in town. Let’s say, further, that you say that you want workers treated fairly. Finally, let’s assume a story emerges in local media that Joe’s Bakery has been routinely failing to pay its hourly workers overtime when they work more than 40 hours a week. Your belief in treating workers fairly comes into direct contradiction with your knowledge that Joe’s Bakery has been treating its workers unfairly. And yet Joe’s Bakery has hands down the best apple fritters in town. You will no doubt feel some cognitive dissonance because you hold two or more contradictory beliefs.
I had occasion to remember this theory today when reading about Trump’s proposed tariffs and how they are really a not-so-hidden sales tax. (During the recently-concluded campaign, Vice President Harris frequently mentioned Trump’s “national sales tax,” language which allowed Trump to deny vehemently that he supported a national sales tax while still calling for tariffs.) Without diving too deeply into the weeds of international economics, what happens when governments impose a tariff on imports is that the companies who import those goods pay the tariff to the government and then pass along the tariff to consumers in the form of a higher price. For example, if an imported sedan costs an importer $40,000 but the importer must also pay a 20% tariff (a figure Trump repeatedly mentioned), the cost to the importer will actually be $48,000 and the importer will attempt to recover all or most of that $8,000 tariff by passing it along in the form of an $8,000 higher sticker price to consumers.
Exit polls on November 5 showed that one major reason voters turned to Trump this election cycle is that they were upset or angry about inflation. Even though the economic data was pretty much unequivocal that the annual inflation rate had declined from a post-pandemic high of 9% annually to somewhere in the neighorhood of the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% annually, consumers and voters were still seeing higher prices every time they traveled to the grocery or hardware stores. It mattered little to voters that economists said that Biden’s plan to tame inflation was working when their daily perception was that what used to be a $100 weekly grocery bill was now reoutinely $150. And so they voted for Trump to show their unhappiness with inflation and to punish the incumbent party.
Ah, but here’s where cognitive dissonance should make an appearance in fairly short order. Because, you see, Trump campaigned on reducing inflation but is proposing tariffs that will raise prices. (His proposal to deport undocumented workers may also cause inflation if no labor force exists to harvest the agricultural produce for American consumers.) You hold two or more contradictory beliefs: you voted for lower inflation but the person whom you voted for is causing higher inflation. What steps will you take to reduce the anxiety of that cognitive dissonanc
When people feel anxiety caused by cognitive dissonance, what usually happens is that they take steps to reduce that anxiety. Sometimes, but rarely, that step might be to realize that one of the two contradictory beliefs they once held is incorrect. To wit, Trump actually was never going to reduce inflation and it was wrong to vote for him on that basis. Usually, though, people reduce anxiety by engaging in “rationalization.” In this case, the rationalization might go something like this, “Yes, prices are going up but it’s not Trump’s fault. It’s the fault of those foreign countries and companies for raising prices.” (Remember that consumers pay the tariffs that are passed along to them by importers; foreign countries and companies NEVER pay tariffs.)
As I considered this, I realized there are many other places where Americans will feel cognitive dissonance in the months and years to come. Trump voters, for example, favor strong borders and oppose the presence of undocumented workers on American soil. But many Trump voters will oppose ripping babies out of their mothers’ arms (as Trump’s family separation policies did in his first term and will do on an industrial scale in his second term). They may choose to rationalize away their anxiety by saying, “Trump isn’t actually separating families” (even though experience and experts say this is exactly what will ensue). Get ready for a flood of rationalizations that excuse the glaring discrepancies between values that Trump supporters claim they hold and the Trump administration’s behavior.
In one of the more amusing exchanges in Lawrence Kasdan’s The Big Chill, Michael (played by Jeff Goldblum) tells his friend Sam (played by Tom Berenger) that rationalizations are essential to modern life:
Michael: I don't know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They're more important than sex.
Sam: Ah, come on. Nothing's more important than sex.
Michael: Oh yeah? Ever gone a week without a rationalization?
Psychologists point out that people frequently experience cognitive dissonance on a small scale on a daily basis. As Michael points out, rationalizations help us to get through the day and are very important. I expect we will see rationalizations for Trump’s depravity and brutality surge in the coming days. It may not be the only way to reconcile humane beliefs with Trump’s inhumane actions and policies, but it may be the easiest way.